TEs: 2012 review, plus 2013 preview/ranks
Eric Karabell
Let's be honest: The 2012 season was not a pleasant one, in general, for the tight end position. Whereas New England Patriots media star Rob Gronkowski and the New Orleans Saints' Jimmy Graham delivered record-breaking performances in 2011, and pushed their way into the second rounds of ESPN average live drafts, neither player was able to duplicate the success, mainly due to injury. In fact, these fellows were again the top two tight end scorers, but after combining for 420 standard fantasy points in 2011, they came back with 283. That's a big difference.
The problem was that nobody else really stepped up. In most weeks, fantasy owners could count the number of double-digit scorers at tight end on one hand, and few players were consistent all year long. Alas, every fantasy team needs a tight end, and in ESPN standard leagues, the adjustment was made to include the position among flex options, though few tight ends deserved the designation week to week.
<offer>Now that we've recapped (and previewed for 2013) the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions, it's time to take a look at the tight end position to close down our position analysis. Enjoy your fantasy football offseason!
Tight end MVP: Unlike the other positions, tight end offers no obvious choice. Gronkowski came within five points of Graham's position-leading total, and did so while missing five games, so he was productive when active. Graham missed no games, but a wrist injury held him back. However, these were second-round picks! Tony Gonzalez yet again outperformed his draft-day rank quite easily, finishing third at the position in scoring despite being an eighth-round pick. Man, he'd better not retire this offseason! Dennis Pitta, Heath Miller and Owen Daniels were pleasant surprises, but Gonzalez, second at the position in receptions, third in yards and targets, and tied for fourth in touchdowns, gets the nod.
Tight end LVP: One could certainly argue, based on draft position, for Graham, who went scoreless in two weeks, and from Weeks 11 to 16 didn't reach double digits once. But he still led the position in scoring! Antonio Gates and Jermichael Finley went fourth and fifth, respectively, at the position on draft day, and neither finished close to the top 10. But Vernon Davis of the San Francisco 49ers gets the nod because, unlike Gates and Finley, he started the season well, raising expectations and giving owners comfort that was hard to shake. And after reaching double digits in fantasy scoring four of the first five weeks, Davis went in the tank. He topped three fantasy points one time after that. He gets the LVP designation.
[h=3]My top 25 TEs for 2013[/h]First tier (Round 3)
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
Second tier (Rounds 5-6)
3. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
4. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
5. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
Third tier (Round 8 and beyond)
6. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans
7. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
8. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
9. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens
11. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
13. Martellus Bennett, New York Giants
14. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
15. Brandon Myers, Oakland Raiders
16. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
17. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles
18. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts
19. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
20. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans
21. Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos
22. Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams
23. Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills
24. Coby Fleener, Colts
25. Fred Davis, Washington Redskins
Just missed: Dustin Keller, New York Jets; Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns; Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars; Dallas Clark, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Tony Moeaki, Kansas City Chiefs.
Biggest surprise: It might be tough to remember now, but back in late August, nobody really wanted to select Dallas Cowboys reception machine Jason Witten, who was questionable for the start of the season because of a spleen injury. Witten slipped to the ninth round. Then, of course, he went on to break the record for receptions by a tight end with 110. He was the only tight end to eclipse 1,000 yards. Sure, he scored as many touchdowns in 16 games as Chargers backup Dante Rosario did in Week 2 alone, but Witten was arguably the most consistent tight end provider all year, and in PPR leagues, he was a top option.
Biggest misconception: Other than thinking that Tony Gonzalez is about to take a Gates-like plunge into irrelevancy, it's probably that it is possible to predict touchdowns for most tight ends. Sure, Gronk will always get his and Witten might not, but look at Heath Miller of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He went from 2 to 8 in one year. Kyle Rudolph actually caught half of all the Minnesota Vikings' receiving touchdowns. Yet Marcedes Lewis of the Jacksonville Jaguars had a three-year run of 10 touchdowns, then zero in 2011, then four this past season. Talk about unpredictable.
Youngster to watch: Indianapolis Colts stud Andrew Luck was given two rookie tight ends with size and speed to throw to, and while it's unlikely Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener will become the next Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, either is capable of becoming a top-10 tight end. Fleener was the one who played with Luck at Stanford, but a shoulder injury derailed him and Allen had the better season.
Veteran to watch: Brandon Myers came from nowhere to contribute to fantasy rosters, finishing fourth at the position in catches and targets, sixth in yards and 10th in standard points. Now 27, Myers caught 32 passes his first three seasons with the Oakland Raiders, none for touchdowns. Now he's a reasonable deep-league option to start. It's premature to guess who the Raiders' quarterback will be in 2013, but Myers proved himself. Oh, here's another misconception: presuming that a younger, inexperienced quarterback will look more to the tight end than the veteran. Didn't quite work for Vernon Davis.
Keeper notes: Heading into the 2012 season, Gronkowski and Graham looked like obvious difference-makers at the position, and clear keepers. Today they're still the best, but don't force it. Top-10 running backs and wide receivers would remain better choices. Still, it's tough to make a case to keep any other tight ends, even in deeper formats.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Gronkowski was the 14th pick in 2012 ADP, Graham the 20th selection, and then there was a major drop-off to Vernon Davis at pick No. 48. I'd recommend waiting until the third round, at least, to choose the top guys, and if you don't get them, take your sweet ol' time filling the position. There's always uncertainty at tight end, and just like relief pitchers in fantasy baseball, surprise producers come from nowhere and become attractive free-agent additions. Assuming Atlanta's Gonzalez keeps on playing, he's not likely to slip as far as he usually does, and after that, wait until the 10th round, when you've filled your key positions and secured proper reserves.
[h=3]Five noteworthy TE stats from 2012[/h]
1. Throw out the aberrant 2011 season when Gronk/Graham set records, but in 2010, when Witten led tight ends with 146 points, 35 running backs/wide receivers outscored him. This past season, when Graham led tight ends with 144 points, exactly 35 running backs/wide receivers outscored him. Wow!
2. Gates was said to have had a down season in 2011, when he scored 115 fantasy points in 13 games. In 2012, despite playing in 15 games, he scored just 89 points. Then again, he has scored seven or more touchdowns in nine consecutive seasons. In that span, Gonzalez has done it four times.
3. Gates topped 11 fantasy points in just one week. His Week 2 replacement, Rosario, did the same when he scored 22 points. Rosario would score 23 points for the season. His Week 2 performance was topped only five times all year by tight ends.
4. Witten's three touchdown catches were exceeded by 22 tight ends. Among those who also had three touchdowns at tight end was Green Bay's Tom Crabtree. He caught 102 fewer passes than Witten did on 138 fewer targets.
5. Only two qualified tight ends finished in the league's top 40 in yards per reception. One was Gronkowski. The other was Tony Moeaki of the Kansas City Chiefs. Who knew?
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Eric Karabell
Let's be honest: The 2012 season was not a pleasant one, in general, for the tight end position. Whereas New England Patriots media star Rob Gronkowski and the New Orleans Saints' Jimmy Graham delivered record-breaking performances in 2011, and pushed their way into the second rounds of ESPN average live drafts, neither player was able to duplicate the success, mainly due to injury. In fact, these fellows were again the top two tight end scorers, but after combining for 420 standard fantasy points in 2011, they came back with 283. That's a big difference.
The problem was that nobody else really stepped up. In most weeks, fantasy owners could count the number of double-digit scorers at tight end on one hand, and few players were consistent all year long. Alas, every fantasy team needs a tight end, and in ESPN standard leagues, the adjustment was made to include the position among flex options, though few tight ends deserved the designation week to week.
<offer>Now that we've recapped (and previewed for 2013) the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions, it's time to take a look at the tight end position to close down our position analysis. Enjoy your fantasy football offseason!
Tight end MVP: Unlike the other positions, tight end offers no obvious choice. Gronkowski came within five points of Graham's position-leading total, and did so while missing five games, so he was productive when active. Graham missed no games, but a wrist injury held him back. However, these were second-round picks! Tony Gonzalez yet again outperformed his draft-day rank quite easily, finishing third at the position in scoring despite being an eighth-round pick. Man, he'd better not retire this offseason! Dennis Pitta, Heath Miller and Owen Daniels were pleasant surprises, but Gonzalez, second at the position in receptions, third in yards and targets, and tied for fourth in touchdowns, gets the nod.
Tight end LVP: One could certainly argue, based on draft position, for Graham, who went scoreless in two weeks, and from Weeks 11 to 16 didn't reach double digits once. But he still led the position in scoring! Antonio Gates and Jermichael Finley went fourth and fifth, respectively, at the position on draft day, and neither finished close to the top 10. But Vernon Davis of the San Francisco 49ers gets the nod because, unlike Gates and Finley, he started the season well, raising expectations and giving owners comfort that was hard to shake. And after reaching double digits in fantasy scoring four of the first five weeks, Davis went in the tank. He topped three fantasy points one time after that. He gets the LVP designation.
[h=3]My top 25 TEs for 2013[/h]First tier (Round 3)
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
Second tier (Rounds 5-6)
3. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
4. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
5. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
Third tier (Round 8 and beyond)
6. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans
7. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
8. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
9. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens
11. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
13. Martellus Bennett, New York Giants
14. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
15. Brandon Myers, Oakland Raiders
16. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
17. Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles
18. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts
19. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
20. Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans
21. Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos
22. Lance Kendricks, St. Louis Rams
23. Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills
24. Coby Fleener, Colts
25. Fred Davis, Washington Redskins
Just missed: Dustin Keller, New York Jets; Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns; Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars; Dallas Clark, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Tony Moeaki, Kansas City Chiefs.
Biggest surprise: It might be tough to remember now, but back in late August, nobody really wanted to select Dallas Cowboys reception machine Jason Witten, who was questionable for the start of the season because of a spleen injury. Witten slipped to the ninth round. Then, of course, he went on to break the record for receptions by a tight end with 110. He was the only tight end to eclipse 1,000 yards. Sure, he scored as many touchdowns in 16 games as Chargers backup Dante Rosario did in Week 2 alone, but Witten was arguably the most consistent tight end provider all year, and in PPR leagues, he was a top option.
Biggest misconception: Other than thinking that Tony Gonzalez is about to take a Gates-like plunge into irrelevancy, it's probably that it is possible to predict touchdowns for most tight ends. Sure, Gronk will always get his and Witten might not, but look at Heath Miller of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He went from 2 to 8 in one year. Kyle Rudolph actually caught half of all the Minnesota Vikings' receiving touchdowns. Yet Marcedes Lewis of the Jacksonville Jaguars had a three-year run of 10 touchdowns, then zero in 2011, then four this past season. Talk about unpredictable.
Youngster to watch: Indianapolis Colts stud Andrew Luck was given two rookie tight ends with size and speed to throw to, and while it's unlikely Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener will become the next Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, either is capable of becoming a top-10 tight end. Fleener was the one who played with Luck at Stanford, but a shoulder injury derailed him and Allen had the better season.
Veteran to watch: Brandon Myers came from nowhere to contribute to fantasy rosters, finishing fourth at the position in catches and targets, sixth in yards and 10th in standard points. Now 27, Myers caught 32 passes his first three seasons with the Oakland Raiders, none for touchdowns. Now he's a reasonable deep-league option to start. It's premature to guess who the Raiders' quarterback will be in 2013, but Myers proved himself. Oh, here's another misconception: presuming that a younger, inexperienced quarterback will look more to the tight end than the veteran. Didn't quite work for Vernon Davis.
Keeper notes: Heading into the 2012 season, Gronkowski and Graham looked like obvious difference-makers at the position, and clear keepers. Today they're still the best, but don't force it. Top-10 running backs and wide receivers would remain better choices. Still, it's tough to make a case to keep any other tight ends, even in deeper formats.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Gronkowski was the 14th pick in 2012 ADP, Graham the 20th selection, and then there was a major drop-off to Vernon Davis at pick No. 48. I'd recommend waiting until the third round, at least, to choose the top guys, and if you don't get them, take your sweet ol' time filling the position. There's always uncertainty at tight end, and just like relief pitchers in fantasy baseball, surprise producers come from nowhere and become attractive free-agent additions. Assuming Atlanta's Gonzalez keeps on playing, he's not likely to slip as far as he usually does, and after that, wait until the 10th round, when you've filled your key positions and secured proper reserves.
[h=3]Five noteworthy TE stats from 2012[/h]
1. Throw out the aberrant 2011 season when Gronk/Graham set records, but in 2010, when Witten led tight ends with 146 points, 35 running backs/wide receivers outscored him. This past season, when Graham led tight ends with 144 points, exactly 35 running backs/wide receivers outscored him. Wow!
2. Gates was said to have had a down season in 2011, when he scored 115 fantasy points in 13 games. In 2012, despite playing in 15 games, he scored just 89 points. Then again, he has scored seven or more touchdowns in nine consecutive seasons. In that span, Gonzalez has done it four times.
3. Gates topped 11 fantasy points in just one week. His Week 2 replacement, Rosario, did the same when he scored 22 points. Rosario would score 23 points for the season. His Week 2 performance was topped only five times all year by tight ends.
4. Witten's three touchdown catches were exceeded by 22 tight ends. Among those who also had three touchdowns at tight end was Green Bay's Tom Crabtree. He caught 102 fewer passes than Witten did on 138 fewer targets.
5. Only two qualified tight ends finished in the league's top 40 in yards per reception. One was Gronkowski. The other was Tony Moeaki of the Kansas City Chiefs. Who knew?
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